Taiwan 2020 Election

By: The Project 2049 Institute

| Electoral Background |

• The upcoming Republic of China (Taiwan) 2020 presidential election is scheduled for January 11, 2020. The Legislative Yuan election is held concurrently.
• The winner of the 2020 presidential election will be inaugurated on May 20, 2020.
• The presidential and vice presidential candidates will be elected together on the same ticket, using first-past-the-post voting. 
• Currently, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), New Power Party (NPP) and People First Party (PFP), which received more than five percent of the total vote share in the latest election at any level, are eligible to introduce their presidential candidates. 
• If independent candidates and smaller parties’ candidates wish to contest, they have to submit applications to the Central Election Commission within five days after the public notice for election is issued. Then, they will have to gather joint signatures from 1.5 percent of the total electors in the latest election of the members of the Legislative Yuan (about 280 thousand), and pay the deposit of NT$1,000,000.
• Primaries:
  • DPP: President Tsai Ing-wen won the DPP primary on June 7, 2019, and was officially nominated by the party to run for the election. Her opponent William Lai, former president of the Executive Yuan, withdrew his candidacy after losing the primary. 
  • KMT: Five candidates joined the party primary, including Eric Chu, the former New Taipei City Mayor; Terry Gou, chairman of Foxconn; and Han Kuo-yu, the current mayor of Kaohsiung, as the dominant contestants. On July 16, 2019, Han Kuo-yu won the party’s poll and was officially nominated by the party to run as the KMT candidate.

| Declared Political Parties |

KUOMINTANG  (KMT) 

DEMOCRATIC PROGRESSIVE PARTY  (DPP)

| Key Dates |

• Election timeline:
  • 11/18/2019-11/22/2019: Presidential candidate registration
  • 12/13/2019: Final list of candidates announced
  • 12/14/2019- 1/10/2020: Televised presidential debates
  • 1/11/2020: Election Day
  • 1/17/2020: Final result announced

| Polling Data as of 11/03/2019 |

Tsai-Han

Date	Poll	Sample Size	Tsai Ing-wen	Han Kuo-yu
11/03/2019	Apple Daily	1076	42.7%	25.7%
10/26/2019	UDN	1202	42.0%	30.0%
10/25/2019	Formosa	1069	47.8%	30.9%
10/23/2019	TVBS	1209	52.0%	39.0%

Methodology:

Apple Daily, TVBS, Formosa, and United Daily News (UDN) were chosen for our data because they claim to utilize only telephone polling.

Disclaimer:

The Project 2049 Institute is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization and does not endorse political candidates of any party or country.